Signals

All readings as of Friday 17 July close; published Monday 20 July 2026. El Nino firmed again last week. The Bureau of Meteorology’s Nino3.4 index reached +1.47 degrees Celsius for the week ending 12 July, up 0.23 from the +1.24 carried in our last issue and now well above the +0.8 El Nino threshold. Dry … Read more

El Nino is holding firm, geopolitical pressure is easing and world food prices are drifting lower. That is the picture from the first Agavart Global Signals reading: the Nino3.4 index stands at +1.24 degrees Celsius for the week ending 28 June, well above the +0.8 threshold that marks El Nino conditions. The Geopolitical Risk Index … Read more