Global Signals

A read on the public indicators that move global agriculture and commodity markets. Each card shows the latest official reading, the date it refers to, and what it signals for food and farm trade. Readings are curated from primary sources and refreshed as new data is released.

Climate

ENSO, Nino 3.4

+1.24 °C
Week ending 28 June 2026
El Nino

El Nino threshold: +0.80 °C

El Nino tends to bring drier weather to South and Southeast Asia and Australia, a risk for rice, wheat, sugar and oilseeds.

Source: Bureau of Meteorology, Commonwealth of Australia

Freight

Baltic Dry Index

2,490
Late June 2026 (indicative)

Near its lowest since mid April 2026

The cost of shipping dry bulk cargo such as grain, coal and fertilizer by sea, an early read on trade cost pressure.

Source: Baltic Exchange (indicative reading)

Climate

Indian Ocean Dipole

-0.02 °C
Week ending 27 June 2026
Neutral

A positive phase is likely later in 2026

An Indian Ocean driver of the monsoon. A positive phase tends to dry India and Australia, a risk for oilseeds, pulses and wheat.

Source: Bureau of Meteorology, Commonwealth of Australia

Geopolitics

Geopolitical Risk Index

184.2
May 2026

100 equals the 1985 to 2019 average. Next update: around the 10th

A newspaper based gauge of geopolitical tension. Spikes often precede disruptions to energy, fertilizer and grain trade routes.

Source: Geopolitical Risk Index, Caldara and Iacoviello

Readings are curated from primary public sources and refreshed as new data is released. Figures are indicative and for general understanding, not investment advice.