College Park, 9 July 2026. The United States Climate Prediction Center has kept its El Nino Advisory in place, reporting that El Nino strengthened over the past month and will continue to build through the end of the year. The centre now puts the chance of a very strong El Nino during October to December at 81 per cent, and gives a 97 per cent chance that El Nino will persist into early spring of 2027. Such an event would rank among the largest in records going back to 1950.
The current readings
El Nino strengthened over the past month, with a large area of sea surface temperatures more than 1.0 degree Celsius above average across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The latest weekly Nino-3.4 index, the region forecasters watch most closely, rose to plus 1.2 degrees Celsius, up from plus 0.7 degrees a month earlier. The far-western Nino-4 index was plus 0.5 degrees, while the eastern Nino-1+2 index reached plus 2.7 degrees. Both the traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were significantly negative, consistent with a strengthening El Nino.
Why forecasters are confident
Below the surface, the equatorial subsurface temperature index increased as a downwelling Kelvin wave deepened the thermocline and warmed the eastern Pacific, adding heat available to sustain the event. Low-level westerly wind anomalies persisted over the western and central Pacific, while convection was enhanced over the central Pacific and suppressed over Indonesia. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble, including the NCEP CFSv2 model, forecasts El Nino to intensify through 2026, and the strong coupling of ocean and atmosphere gives forecasters very high confidence.
What the El Nino advisory means
El Nino is the warm phase of the natural swing in Pacific Ocean temperatures known as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, which shifts rainfall and temperature patterns around the world. A very strong event tilts the odds toward particular seasonal outcomes, although the Climate Prediction Center cautions that even the strongest El Nino events do not bring the typical impact everywhere. For farmers, commodity traders and planners the strength forecast matters, because it shapes the probabilities in seasonal outlooks for rainfall, temperature and storms across many regions.
What to watch next
The advisory is the consolidated view of NOAA and its National Weather Service, with ocean and atmosphere conditions updated weekly. The next monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussion is scheduled for 13 August 2026, which will show whether El Nino has continued to build toward its forecast winter peak.
Source: El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion, NOAA Climate Prediction Center, 9 July 2026.
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