OPEC’s July 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report places India at the front of global oil demand growth for 2027. In OPEC’s own tables, India is set to add about 0.36 million barrels a day next year, the largest gain of any single country, ahead of China at 0.29 million barrels a day. This lifts India’s oil demand from 5.74 million barrels a day in 2026 to 6.10 million barrels a day in 2027. It is worth reading this precisely: China remains far larger in absolute terms, at about 17.30 million barrels a day in 2027, so India leads on the increment, not on the total.

The wider shape of the forecast explains why India stands out. OPEC sees world oil demand growing by about 1.94 million barrels a day in 2027, of which roughly 1.68 million barrels a day comes from non-OECD countries, while the OECD adds only about 0.27 million barrels a day. Within the non-OECD group, the largest additions come from India at 0.36, the Middle East at 0.32, Other Asia at 0.31 and China at 0.29 million barrels a day. Of these, India is the single largest individual country, while the Middle East and Other Asia are regional groups.

India’s demand is underpinned by the strongest headline growth among the major economies OPEC tracks. India’s GDP growth forecasts are held unchanged at 6.6 per cent for 2026 and 6.5 per cent for 2027, above the United States, the Eurozone, Japan and China. On the trade side, India’s crude imports recovered to 5.1 million barrels a day in May, rising for a second straight month, while product imports reached 814 thousand barrels a day and product exports 938 thousand barrels a day, the latter supported by higher naphtha outflows.

India’s growth is also import driven, which links this demand story to trade and freight. With crude imports at 5.1 million barrels a day in May against domestic demand near 5.7 million barrels a day, most of the rise in Indian consumption has to be met by higher imports. India is at the same time a refining hub, taking in 814 thousand barrels a day of products while exporting 938 thousand barrels a day, so the country sits on both sides of the product trade even as its underlying demand climbs.

The near-term picture is more modest. For 2026, India adds only about 0.09 million barrels a day as global demand growth stays soft at 0.8 million barrels a day. The step-up arrives in 2027, when the world total accelerates to 1.94 million barrels a day and India’s share of that increase is the largest of any country. In OPEC’s numbers, the centre of gravity for oil demand growth in Asia is broadening beyond China to include India as a leading driver.