The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report July 2026 captures an oil market that cooled sharply in June after a volatile first half of the year. The OPEC Reference Basket fell by $24.80 to average $89.75 a barrel, while ICE Brent dropped $19.28 to $84.43 and NYMEX WTI eased $16.72 to $81.79. The report links the decline to easing geopolitical tension in the Middle East and expectations of stronger near-term supply, which together thinned the risk premium that had built up earlier in 2026. Even so, the price structure stayed in backwardation, and OPEC notes that low global stocks and firm summer refinery demand kept the physical market supported.

On the economy, OPEC left every headline growth forecast unchanged. World GDP is held at 3.1 per cent for 2026 and 3.2 per cent for 2027, with India the fastest of the major economies at 6.6 per cent and 6.5 per cent. Global oil demand growth for 2026 was trimmed slightly to 0.8 million barrels a day, while the 2027 figure was revised up to 1.9 million barrels a day, with most of the gain coming from non-OECD countries.

Supply is where the report shows the clearest shift. Crude output from countries in the Declaration of Cooperation rose to average 36.28 million barrels a day in June, a sizeable month-on-month rebound as flows normalised. Non-DoC liquids are still expected to add about 0.6 million barrels a day in both 2026 and 2027, led by Brazil, the United States, Canada and Argentina. Alongside this, OECD commercial stocks slipped to 2,770 million barrels, staying below their five-year average, while India’s crude imports climbed for a second straight month to 5.1 million barrels a day.

The report also points to softer conditions across products, tankers and trade. Refining margins extended their downward trend on the US Gulf Coast and in Rotterdam, pressured by lower product prices. In the tanker market, dirty freight rates stayed volatile: on the West Africa to East route, VLCC spot rates rose about 10 per cent month on month and remained around 160 per cent higher than a year earlier, while clean rates west of Suez fell by an average of 44 per cent. On trade, US crude imports averaged 5.4 million barrels a day and exports retreated from record highs to 4.4 million barrels a day, China’s crude imports eased to 7.8 million barrels a day, and India’s rose to 5.1 million barrels a day.

On the balance of supply and demand, OPEC revised the call on DoC crude for 2026 down by 0.2 million barrels a day to 42.3 million barrels a day, level with 2025, and sees it rising to 43.6 million barrels a day in 2027, about 1.2 million barrels a day higher. The report notes that money managers sold the equivalent of about 357 million barrels across Brent and WTI between early May and 30 June, adding to the downward pressure on prices even as low stocks limited the fall.