BEIJING: China’s State Council has approved the 15th Five-Year Plan for Expanding Consumption (2026-2030), the country’s first five-year plan devoted entirely to consumption. The plan targets total retail sales of consumer goods of around 60 trillion yuan (roughly USD 8.85 trillion at current exchange rates) by 2030 and pledges to raise household incomes through multiple channels. The approval, issued as State Council document Guo Han [2026] No. 66 dated 2 July 2026, was released publicly on 13 July 2026 on the Chinese central government portal. The plan was drafted and submitted by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM).
If you have a moment, read on for the full breakdown and sources
What the State Council plan says on expanding consumption
The plan was prepared under China’s overall 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) framework and sets out six task areas in 28 specific measures. The six areas span services consumption, goods consumption upgrading, new business formats and scenarios, consumer capacity, the consumer environment, and institutional mechanisms. In services, the document names elderly care, childcare, healthcare, culture and tourism, sports, and education and training as the areas to be expanded. On goods, it covers housing, cars, home appliances and daily-use products, with an emphasis on quality upgrading and smart, green varieties.
The State Council reply also instructs the governments of all provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities to treat expanding consumption as a key task of their own 15th Five-Year period economic and social development work, and directs the NDRC and MOFCOM to monitor and evaluate implementation.
Incomes, restrictions and the consumer environment
On consumer capacity, the document pledges to promote household income growth through multiple channels and says earnings should favour those who work more, are more skilled and innovate. It commits to steady increases in minimum wages, wider social security coverage and higher basic pension and medical insurance support for rural and urban residents.
The plan also carries a measure on cleaning up unreasonable restrictive measures on consumption. The document says car consumption will shift from purchase management towards use management, with purchase quota needs of long-unsuccessful lottery households to be met in phases, supports city-specific adjustments to property policies to meet essential and upgrade housing demand, and simplifies approval procedures for performance events.
What a 60 trillion yuan consumer market means for commodities
This section is assessment, separate from the document’s facts. A first standalone five-year plan for consumption signals that Beijing is formalising the transition from investment-led to consumption-led growth for the 2026-2030 period. Set against the 50.1 trillion yuan retail sales reported for 2025 in the NDRC-MOFCOM press note, the 60 trillion yuan target implies roughly 10 trillion yuan of additional annual retail sales by 2030.
For global commodity and food markets, the composition of that growth matters as much as its size. A consumer-led China leans less on construction and heavy industry and more on food, feed, protein, edible oils and consumer-facing raw materials. The plan’s emphasis on farm produce consumption, health foods, restaurants and tourism points to steadier import demand for agricultural commodities, while services consumption is less intensive in industrial metals than the investment cycle it replaces. For exporters of oilseeds, feed grains and food products, a structurally larger Chinese consumer market is the more durable demand story of the decade.
Frequently asked questions
What is the 15th Five-Year Plan for Expanding Consumption?
It is China’s first five-year plan dedicated to consumption, prepared by the NDRC and MOFCOM under the overall 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) framework and approved by the State Council in document Guo Han [2026] No. 66.
What is China’s retail sales target for 2030?
The plan targets total retail sales of consumer goods of around 60 trillion yuan by 2030, roughly USD 8.85 trillion at current exchange rates.
Which services consumption areas does the plan name?
The document names elderly care, childcare, healthcare, culture and tourism, sports, and education and training.
How is the plan structured?
It covers six task areas in 28 specific measures, spanning services consumption, goods consumption upgrading, new business formats and scenarios, consumer capacity, the consumer environment and institutional mechanisms. Officials said in the accompanying NDRC-MOFCOM press note that the plan also sets nine special columns on areas such as the silver economy, childcare products and services, culture and tourism, health and car consumption.
Parallel reading
- World Bank China Economic Update July 2026: Growth to Slow to 4.4 per cent as Domestic Demand Stays Weak
- China’s Factory Prices Climb to a Near Four-Year High as Consumers Hold Back
Source: State Council, Reply approving the 15th Five-Year Plan for Expanding Consumption (Guo Han [2026] No. 66), dated 2 July 2026, released 13 July 2026 on the Chinese central government portal. Read the full document on gov.cn. Officials’ remarks are from the accompanying NDRC-MOFCOM press note of 13 July 2026.
Curated and Reviewed by Deepak Chavan | Founder & Market Expert